Driver shortage
Driver shortage 2026: the TLN figures and how transport companies are dealing with it
The TLN Barometer, published in the first quarter of 2026, provides the most recent numerical picture of a problem that has been ongoing for years: the structural shortage of truck drivers in the Netherlands. CBS labor market data and transport figures confirm what transport planners notice every day: the pressure on the labor market has not decreased. In fact, demographic developments make it likely that the shortage will continue to increase in the coming years if no major changes occur.
For operational directors and transport planners at medium-sized companies, the question is no longer whether there is a shortage, but how large it is, which parts of the sector are most affected, and what other companies are doing to keep their operations running. This blog looks at the available data and explains connections that are often overlooked in the pressure of daily operations.
A structural shortage of truck drivers with demographic causes
To understand the current situation, it is important to look at the past few years. The shortage of truck drivers is not new in the Netherlands. Even before the corona period, it was seen as a growing problem. The combination of economic recovery after the pandemic, limitations in logistics capacity, and strong demand for transport caused the shortage to become clearly visible in the early twenties.
What makes 2026 different from previous years is the role of demographics. The number of older drivers is growing rapidly. Many drivers are over fifty and approaching retirement. At the same time, few young people are entering the profession. The high costs of driving licenses, the image of the profession, and working conditions make the job less attractive. CBS figures show that the sector will face an accelerated departure of experienced drivers over the next five years.
This is important because it shows that the shortage is not temporary. It is not a dip that will disappear automatically when the market becomes calmer. Even if the demand for transport decreases, the problem will remain. Staff shortages have therefore become a permanent part of daily planning.
Which segments are being hit the hardest?
Not every part of road transport is affected equally. The shortage differs by segment, and it is important to know where you are vulnerable. In general transport, the problem is mainly that there are too few drivers. For bulk transport and specialized transport, the situation is different. It is not only about numbers, but also about skills. Drivers must have additional certificates, such as for hazardous materials, heavy transport, or refrigerated transport. This makes the pool of available drivers small.
The labor market in these segments is therefore difficult to change. Even if a company pays more or offers better conditions, the number of suitable drivers remains limited. In bulk transport, specific knowledge is often required regarding loading and unloading and the product itself. A driver from general transport cannot simply be deployed there without additional training.
International transport has an additional challenge. Drivers must comply with European driving and rest time regulations and possess the correct documentation. In addition, they must be willing to spend longer periods away from home. This makes the group even smaller. At the same time, European regulations make it less easy to employ drivers from lower-wage countries. As a result, competition in this segment is changing.
What transport companies are doing in practice against the driver shortage
The TLN Barometer and signals from the sector show that companies are actively searching for solutions. They are taking different measures, each with its own advantages and disadvantages.
Focus on retaining drivers
The first step is retaining current drivers. Companies are investing in better employment conditions, more flexible schedules, and greater driver input. In a tight labor market, drivers are increasingly deciding for themselves how they want to work. Stable schedules and predictable working hours have become just as important as salary.
Use of flexible capacity
A second approach is the use of temporary drivers and flexible workers. For many companies, this has now become standard practice. The advantage is flexibility, but it is also more expensive. In addition, temporary workers are less familiar with processes and customers, which can affect quality and compliance. In specialized transport and bulk transport, this is even more difficult because temporary workers often do not have the correct certifications.
Planning more efficiently routes
A third approach is adjusting planning. Companies try to work more efficiently, for example by combining routes better, loading trucks more fully, and being stricter about which assignments they accept. This requires close cooperation between sales and planning and sometimes refusing less profitable trips.
Training internal staff
Some companies invest in training their own employees. Staff from, for example, the warehouse or forwarding department are given the opportunity to become drivers. This costs time and money, but it results in drivers who already know the company. In sectors such as bulk transport, this is a major advantage.
Automation of supporting processes
Finally, larger companies are looking at process automation. Not to replace drivers, but to make their work easier. Think of less administration and better systems so drivers can use their time more efficiently.
Consequences of the driver shortage for the next twelve months
For the next six to twelve months, this mainly means higher labor costs. Drivers know they are scarce and are setting higher demands. This is reflected in salaries, collective labor agreement negotiations, and loyalty. Companies that do not invest in their personnel face higher turnover more quickly, and that is expensive and difficult to solve.
Large companies have an advantage here. They have more resources for training, better agreements with staffing agencies, and greater flexibility in planning. Small and medium-sized companies are more vulnerable. Losing just a few drivers can already have major consequences.
In bulk and specialized transport, competition for qualified drivers will continue to increase. Companies that do not invest in training and retaining personnel now risk falling further behind. How quickly experienced drivers stop working remains uncertain, but it still plays an important role in planning.
What you can do now for your logistics operation
In the short term, over the next three months, it is important to map out your own situation properly. How many drivers will retire within the next few years? How high is staff turnover and why are people leaving? Which routes are at risk if someone is absent? This analysis provides insight into how vulnerable your organization is. Compare this with TLN figures to see where you stand.
Also look at whether employees are interested in becoming drivers and what steps are needed for that. Training takes a long time, so the earlier you start, the better.
In the medium term, over three to twelve months, it is important to critically review your planning. Is your current way of working still feasible? Which customer agreements are realistic and where is there unnecessary pressure? This requires discussions with sales and sometimes with customers as well.
Also follow developments in collective labor agreements and employment conditions. These are changing quickly and directly affect attracting and retaining personnel.
Conclusion: a structural shortage of truck drivers requires a structural approach
The question is not whether the driver shortage is real. The TLN Barometer and CBS figures clearly show that the problem exists. The real question is what this means for the daily practice of transport companies.
The answer is that the shortage is permanent, mainly due to demographic developments and differences between segments. In bulk and specialized transport, the problem is even greater because of the lack of specific skills. Companies that adapt their processes, invest in personnel, and communicate openly with customers are best prepared for the future.
What remains important to follow are developments in collective labor agreements, new CBS figures, and updates from the TLN Barometer. This topic remains in motion and requires continuous attention.
Sources and background
- STL Sector Monitor
https://www.stl.nl/werkgevers/trends-en-marktontwikkelingen/jaar-en-kwartaalrapportages/sectormonitor-kwartaalrapportage/ - STL Q2 2025
https://www.stl.nl/over-stl/actueel/sectormonitor-2e-kwartaal-2025/ - STL Q4 2025
https://www.stl.nl/over-stl/actueel/sectormonitor-4e-kwartaal-2025/ - CBS Labor Market Dashboard
https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/dashboard-arbeidsmarkt - TLN driver shortage report
https://www.tln.nl/actueel/jaarlijks-iru-rapport-over-chauffeurstekorten-gepubliceerd - IRU European shortages
https://www.iru.org/news-resources/newsroom/half-european-truck-operators-cant-expand-due-driver-shortages